One of the great past times of any sporting event is speculating on who will win.  Sports writers and fans will spend endless hours discussing the merits of one individual or one team over another.  Figuring out who will win the Iditarod is near impossible as there are so many obstacles to overcome to be the first team to run down Front Street in Nome.  We all have favorites and there are those that have a better chance at being this year’s champion due to experience, organization, proven breeding programs and personal tenacity.

Of course at this point in Iditarod history the big question is will Lance Mackey win again?  The odds are against him but Lance has made a history of overcoming the odds and pulling off the impossible.  You can’t argue with that history.  His focus and determination keep him a serious competitor.   He is the underdog champion and won’t give up against overwhelming odds.

That’s one reason fans like him so much. In a way it doesn’t matter if he wins or not.  Lance has already earned his place in Iditarod and Alaskan history.  He has given much to this event by being a gracious champion and bringing much attention not only to the Iditarod but to the sport of mushing in general.  That said he still has the team to beat.  When Lance started his winning streak he said he had to beat Jeff King to win the Iditarod.  Now that torch has been passed on to Lance and he’s the one with a target on his back.

However, there are a number of proven serious competitors entered in this year’s Iditarod that are just as determined and focused. Nine of last year’s top ten finishers are back competing to be the 2011 champion.  Along with Lance, there are three past Iditarod champions entered.  Past Yukon Quest champions include Lance, Sebastian Schnuelle, Hans Gatt and this year’s Quest Champion, Dallas Seavey.  Kuskokwim 300 winner Paul Gebhardt is entered, along with two other strong Kusko finishers, Mike Williams Jr. and Peter Kaiser.  John Baker had an incredible run in 2010 and finished in the top five despite a mistake that knocked him off the pace.

All we know about these teams goes into the melting pot of speculation that makes watching this event so much fun.  No one knows if Mackey can pull off five in a row but it’s going to be interesting to watch this race unfold.

The Iditarod is about more than just winning.  There are so many races within the race; the race to be in the top ten, the race to be first to the halfway point of Iditarod, the race to be first to the Yukon River and first to the Bering Coast.  There is the race for rookie of the year and personal races just to improve upon previous finishes or simply just to finish the Iditarod.  And some run just for the adventure or to travel across Alaska with their dog team.  That’s always been a part of the Iditarod. From the very first race in 1973, it’s been about the adventure, the unknown and traveling with sled dogs.  In fact the Iditarod was started to honor the important role the sled dog has played in the history of the North.  It’s one of the reasons that this race can be enjoyed by so many at so many levels.

When you look at the 2011 Iditarod consider all of the variables.  There are forty nine veteran mushers and 13 rookies. One, Jodi Bailey, is trying to complete both the Yukon Quest and Iditarod in her rookie year of long distance racing.  There are eight mushers from other countries.  Fifteen women and 47 men are entered. Along with four past Iditarod champions there are Yukon Quest and Kuskokwim 300 champions.  There are mushers in their 60’s and mushers in their 20’s and each age group has serious competitors.  Try finding that age range in any other competitive sport.

But back to the winner….most of us have a short list of possible candidates to be this year’s champion.  They all have an equal shot at the starting line but different challenges begin to narrow the field as the race progresses.  The winner is almost always in the top 15 teams to reach the Rohn checkpoint, often in the top ten.  To have a shot at winning you don’t have to lead the race, in fact that has often proven to be a mistake but you do have to stay within striking distance of the front runners.

Where a musher decides to take their 24 hour layover can help or hinder their opportunity to win.  Go too far with a tired dog team and you can lose valuable time.  Stop too soon and weather can come in between you and the leaders.  Go too far breaking trail to the next checkpoint and the team that took a break behind you can travel at a faster pace on the trail you broke.  Each musher weighs a myriad of different factors along with the condition of their teams when deciding where to take their 24 hour break.  They are all aware that stopping at the wrong point or place could cost them the opportunity of winning the race.  Then again each musher makes thousands of decisions over the course of the race along a trail that can help or hurt their finish position.  At this point in time there are many hopefuls.  That’s one of the fun aspects of the Saturday start in downtown Anchorage.  Everyone’s a champion that day.

The trail will take its toll over the coming days.  Some will go home early, unable to finish.  Some will finish disappointed, but will already be planning for next year’s race.  Running the Iditarod can be an emotional roller coaster as teams confront the challenges of the trail.  It is those challenges that keep the Iditarod so fascinating to mushers and fans alike

Someone in this year’s group of mushers will be the 2011 champion.  It could be Lance Mackey or one of his challengers, Baker, Gatt, Gebhardt, Schnuelle, Seavey, Anderson, Buser.  The list goes on.  Pick your favorite.  Enjoy the show… And let the games begin!